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More about varnings
What are impact-based warnings?
The weather affects us all in different ways, every day. Extreme weather can put a lot of strain on society, but the consequences of the weather can differ significantly depending on where in the country, or during what season, it occurs. The purpose of SMHI's weather warnings is that society - from regions, county administrations and municipalities to businesses and individuals - should be able to build better crisis preparedness.
Frequently asked questions about warnings
Where can you find current warnings?
If there is a current warning, it will always be visible in the top right corner of the website or at the very top on mobile.
When is a warning issued and why?
A warning is issued when the weather is expected to cause consequences or disruptions in society.
These warnings are regionally adapted, as society's sensitivity to different types of weather can vary depending on where in the country the weather event occurs.
For example, 20 cm of snow can have very different consequences depending on whether it falls in inland Norrland or in a major city in southern Sweden.
Why does SMHI not issue warnings for low temperatures?
When the warnings were designed, cold weather was not considered a serious enough phenomenon to warrant a warning, given the latitude we are located at.
We often experience cold weather in Sweden, and most of the infrastructure is built to handle low temperatures, and people are accustomed to dressing appropriately. Therefore, there is currently no warning level for low temperatures.
However, SMHI now recognises that extreme cold can have consequences.
At present, there is a warning category for 'strong wind chill effect'
Can I go out on the roads when there is a warning in place?
Several of SMHI's warning types can affect roads in different ways. Under the heading "What should I consider?" in the warning text, it is explained how the current warning may affect your journey.
To get the best information on road conditions, we recommend Trafikverket's road map. It provides details on things like road conditions and other traffic disruptions: Traffic information road map - www.trafikverket.se (Swedish)
External link.
More about forecasts
What is a forecast?
A weather forecast is a scientific prediction of future weather conditions for a specific location and time. It provides information on temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and potential storms. Forecasts help plan activities and warn of extreme weather.
A hydrological forecast predicts future water conditions, such as river levels, flooding, droughts, and water quality. It helps manage water resources and prepare for floods or droughts, ensuring safety and efficiency in water use.
Frequently asked questions about forecasts
How often is the forecast updated?
The forecast available on the website and app (local forecast) is continuously updated throughout the day. In addition to having specific fixed times for updates, we can also update the forecast whenever the weather situation requires it. For the current day, a specific type of update is made every hour.
There may be a slight delay before the forecast is updated on the website and app.
Why can there be differences between the forecasts from SMHI and other weather agencies?
Different institutes may choose various types of model runs and from different points, which is why there can be significant differences in the forecasts, especially when looking further ahead in time.
Even very small variations in the treatment of input data can lead to substantial differences in the output.
What do 'certain', 'fairly certain', and 'uncertain' mean in a forecast?
The purpose of having an uncertainty description such as 'uncertain, fairly certain, and certain' is to provide an indication of how much one can trust the primary option shown in the overview forecast or whether one should extend the time step for more information.
Roughly speaking, if the forecast confidence is between 0-33%, the forecast is uncertain; if it’s between 33-63%, it’s fairly certain; and if it’s above that, the forecast is considered certain.
When SMHI calculates how uncertain a forecast is, it is based on ensemble data that shows several possible forecast outcomes for the same location and time.
For all forecast outcomes, a symbol is calculated and then grouped by different weather categories (for example, differentiating between symbols for rain, sun, heavy cloud, fog, snowfall, etc.). If similar symbols appear for all forecast outcomes for that time, the forecast is certain, e.g., all symbols show sun or sun with only a few clouds. If there are multiple different weather symbols within the groupings, the forecast is uncertain.
More about fire risk
Information about fire risk
A fire hazard forecast predicts the likelihood of wildfires based on factors like weather conditions (temperature, humidity, wind), vegetation dryness, and recent rainfall. It helps assess the risk of fire in a particular area and is used to warn communities, manage fire prevention efforts, and allocate firefighting resources.
Why does SMHI issue warnings for grass fire risk?
There are two different types of fire risk messages: risk of grass fire and risk of forest fire. Fire risk messages cannot be escalated to a warning.
Messages are issued when only particularly sensitive groups are at risk of problems, or when the prevailing weather conditions create a possibility for an event or consequence to occur. In contrast, a warning is issued when the weather itself is expected to have consequences for society as a whole.
The risk of grass fire is issued during spring when there is a high risk of fires starting and easily spreading in dry last year's grass. Great caution should be exercised when having outdoor fires. It is issued only as a risk and cannot be escalated to a warning. Even if the ground itself is moist, the grass may still be dry.